Postseismic Viscoelastic Relaxation Research Articles

Postseismic deformation mechanism of the 2021 Mw7.3 Maduo earthquake, northeastern Tibetan plateau, China, revealed by Sentinel-1 SAR images

The postseismic deformation mechanism is crucial for understanding the evolution of postseismic crustal stress, strain, and aftershocks. Here, we used ∼ 1 year Sentinel-1 data to obtain the time-dependent postseismic deformation of the 2021 Mw 7.3 Maduo earthquake and inverted afterslip distribution. We calculated the frictional parameter of the causative fault based on the time series afterslip. A wide range of viscoelastic relaxation models with varying lower crust viscosities were also tested to constrain the rheological structure. Our findings indicated that (1) Time-dependent postseismic deformation conforms to a logarithmic function. In the north of the fault, the attenuation time decreases first and then increases from east to west, while the south of the fault is the opposite. (2) The afterslip mainly occurred in the downdip direction of the coseismic slip, and there is an excellent complementary relationship between them in space. The partial shallow afterslip overlapped with the coseismic ruptures, mainly caused by the low frictional parameter (a-b = 10-3 ∼ 10-2). (3) Considering the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation, when the viscosity coefficient is small, the maximum deformation in 1 year after the earthquake is only about 6 mm, which only accounts for about 6 % of the InSAR observed deformation. It indicates that afterslip plays a significant role, and viscous relaxation plays a secondary role.

Source parameter inversion of the 2021 MW7.4 Maduo earthquake and stress transfer in the eastern Bayan Har block

In order to explore the constraint degree of GNSS and InSAR data on the Maduo earthquake under the layered earth model structure, and to understand the cause of the Maduo earthquake and the danger of the surrounding area, this paper uses D-InSAR technology to obtain the InSAR co-seismic deformation field of the Maduo earthquake on May 22,2021. Based on GNSS and InSAR data, the co-seismic slip model and fault plane stress distribution of the Maduo earthquake are jointly inverted. This paper calculates the Coulomb stress changes caused by 14 M ≥ 7 strong earthquakes co-seismic, post-seismic viscoelastic relaxation and inter-seismic tectonic stress loading of 19 fault segments in the Bayan Har block research area (96°E-106°E, 29°N-36°N) since 1900. The results show that: (1) The maximum Line Of Sight (LOS) deformation obtained based on the ascending and descending InSAR data was about 0.9 m. The maximum slip amount of GNSS + InSAR joint inversion is 4.87 m, which is located in the Dongcao Along Lake section (∼98.6°E). Combined with the stress drop distribution of the fault surface, it is found that the Maduo earthquake is dominated by strike-slip. (2) The historical strong earthquakes delayed the Maduo earthquake by nearly 103 years. The 1937 Huashixia earthquake, the 1947 Dari earthquake, the 1963 Dulan earthquake, and the 1973 Luhuo earthquake had the greatest stress unloading effect, which was equivalent to delaying the Maduo earthquake by 53 years, 21 years, 11 years, and 17 years, respectively. The cumulative Coulomb stress at the source location of the Maduo earthquake reached 0.0112 MPa. Most area of the fault sections such as the East Kunlun Fault, the Maduo-Gande Fault, the western and eastern sections of the Dari Fault, the western and eastern sections of the Qingshuihe Fault, the Ganzi-Yushu Fault, and the eastern section of the Kunlunshankou-Jiangcuo Fault are in the Coulomb stress loading area, which should be paid attention to.

Viscoelastic stress change from the 1931 MW7.8 Fuyun earthquake and its impacts on seismic activity around the Altai mountains

The 1931 MW7.8 Fuyun earthquake occurred around the Altai mountains, an intracontinental deformation belt with limited active strain-rate accumulation. To explore whether seismic activity in this deformation belt was affected by stress interaction among different active faults, we calculate the Coulomb failure stress change (ΔCFS) induced by the Fuyun earthquake due to coseismic deformation of the elastic crust and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle. Numerical results show that the total ΔCFS at a 10-km depth produced by the Fuyun earthquake attains approximately 0.015–0.134 bar near the epicenter, and just before the occurrence of the 2003 MW7.2 Chuya earthquake, which distances about 400 km away from the Fuyun earthquake. Among the increased ΔCFS, viscoelastic relaxation from 1931 to 2003 contributes to approximately 0.014–0.131 bar, accounting for >90% of the total ΔCFS. More importantly, we find that for the recorded seismicity in the region with a radius of about 270 km to the Fuyun earthquake from 1970 to 2018, the percentage of earthquakes that fall in positive lobes of ΔCFS resolved on the NNW-SSE Fuyun strike-slip fault, on the NWW-SEE Irtysh strike-slip fault, and on the NW-SE Kurti reverse fault is up to 67.22%–91.36%. Therefore, the predicted ΔCFS suggests that the impact of the 1931 MW7.8 Fuyun earthquake on seismic activity around the Altai mountains is still significant as to hasten occurrence of the 2003 MW7.2 Chuya earthquake at a relatively far distance and to trigger its aftershocks in the near-field even after several decades of the mainshock.

Stress Evolution of the Main Himalayan Thrust Fault Induced by the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake

ABSTRACT The Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake that occurred in 2015 is the largest thrust event in the middle of the main Himalayan thrust fault zone (MHT) in the past 81 yr. Its impact on the regional tectonic stress state and future seismic risks is a significant scientific issue worthy of in-depth analyses. In this study, we inverted the planar fault-slip model (the planar model), the flat-ramp fault-slip model (the flat-ramp model) and the double flat-ramp fault-slip model (the double flat-ramp model) to analyze the effect of the fault geometry, based on the steepest descent method (SDM) and the layered earth model. Compared with the flat-ramp model, the planar model exhibits a wider slip distribution in the down-dip direction of the main rupture zone, whereas the double flat-ramp model shows a larger coseismic slip on the middle ramp at the depth of 7.5–11.5 km. Those slip differences produce larger stress shadow areas in the above models, but for a blind thrust event induced by a low-dip thrust fault, this does not significantly change the distribution mode of coseismic Coulomb stress change (ΔCFS) in the three models. Namely, there is an obvious stress release in the main rupture but an obvious stress loading in the up-dip and down-dip directions of the main rupture zone. Based on the Burgers rheological model, we calculated the postseismic viscoelastic Coulomb stress change (V−ΔCFS) and the cumulative Coulomb stress change (C−ΔCFS) induced by the Gorkha earthquake in the flat-ramp model and comparatively analyzed the evolution pattern of coseismic and postseismic stresses. Our results indicate that the variation trend of postseismic stress in the lithosphere is opposite to that of the coseismic ΔCFS. The postseismic viscoelastic relaxation promotes the slip of the flat-ramp structure at the depth of 10–25 km, and the stress unloads in the shallow and deep part simultaneously. As a blind thrust event, the coseismic ΔCFS still plays a dominant role in the shallow part after 50 yr, whereas the loading C−ΔCFS in the deep part of the MHT is greatly weakened by the postseismic V−ΔCFS. Seismic risks still exist in the unruptured area on the west side of the mainshock and the shallow Main Frontal thrust.

Three-dimensional finite-element modeling of Coulomb stress changes on normal and thrust faults caused by pore fluid pressure changes and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation

Abstract The analysis of Coulomb stress changes has become an important tool for seismic hazard evaluation because such stress changes may trigger or delay subsequent earthquakes. Processes that can cause significant Coulomb stress changes include coseismic slip and transient postseismic processes such as poroelastic effects and viscoelastic relaxation. However, the combined influence of poroelastic effects and viscoelastic relaxation on co- and postseismic Coulomb stress changes has not been systematically studied so far. Here, we use three-dimensional finite-element models with arrays of normal and thrust faults to investigate how pore fluid pressure changes and viscoelastic relaxation overlap during the postseismic phase. In different experiments, we vary the permeability of the upper crust and the viscosity of the lower crust or lithospheric mantle while keeping the other parameters constant. In addition, we perform experiments in which we combine a high (low) permeability of the upper crust with a low (high) viscosity of the lower crust. Our results show that the coseismic (i.e., static) Coulomb stress changes are altered by the signal from poroelastic effects and viscoelastic relaxation during the first month after the earthquake. For sufficiently low viscosities, the Coulomb stress change patterns show a combined signal from poroelastic and viscoelastic effects already during the first postseismic year. For sufficiently low permeabilities, Coulomb stress changes induced by poroelastic effects overlap with the signals from viscoelastic relaxation and interseismic stress accumulation for decades. Our results imply that poroelastic and viscoelastic effects have a strong impact on postseismic Coulomb stress changes and should therefore be considered together when analyzing Coulomb stress transfer between faults.

Exploring the Connection of XVI‐Century Major Historical Earthquakes in the Eastern Betic Cordillera, Spain: Insights From Viscoelastic Relaxation of the Lithosphere

AbstractUnderstanding the crustal fault interaction and connection between earthquakes in areas with slow tectonic deformation, such as Betic Cordillera (South Spain), is challenging. When seismic rates are low and large destructive earthquakes happen less frequently, it is necessary to resort to historical or paleoseismic records. This study investigates the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation mechanism as a potential explanation for the occurrence of three historical earthquakes (IEMSVIII‐IX) in the Eastern Betic Shear Zone during the XVI‐century, all of which occurred within a span of 13 years: 1518 Vera Mw6.2, 1522 Alhama de Almeria Mw6.5, and 1531 Baza Mw6.2 associated with the Palomares, Carboneras, and Baza faults, respectively. The results strongly suggest a sequential stress‐triggering connection between the three events. The northern NS‐oriented section of the Baza fault is found to have experienced a larger positive ΔCFS and, indeed, more prone to rupture in 1531. The study also examines whether the cumulative ΔCFS had influenced the occurrence of further significant earthquakes (≥Mw6.0) in the region. A triggering connection between the cascade and the 1658 Almeria Mw6.2 earthquake is suggested, whereas no indications of similar linkage to the 1674 Lorca Mw6.0 or the 1804 Dalias Mw6.4 events are found. The stress triggering impact of the cascade over nearby active faults is noteworthy. It is expected that this analysis could have future applications for studying other important historical events, and improving seismic hazard analysis in complex fault settings of the Betic Cordillera.

Source Parameter Inversion and Century-Scale Stress Triggering Analysis of the 2021 Maduo MW7.4 Earthquake Using GNSS and InSAR Displacement Fields

To explore the degree of constraint by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data on the Maduo earthquake within a layered earth model structure and to gain an insight into the seismogenic mechanism and the seismic risk in the surrounding area, this study employs D-InSAR technology to acquire the InSAR co-seismic deformation field of the Maduo earthquake on 22 May 2021. Utilizing both GNSS and InSAR data, the inversions constrained by single and joint data are conducted and compared to determine the co-seismic slip model and fault plane stress distribution of the Maduo earthquake. Additionally, this paper calculates the Coulomb stress changes induced by 14 M ≥ 7 strong earthquakes, considering co-seismic effects, post-seismic viscoelastic relaxation, and inter-seismic tectonic stress loading, on 19 fault segments within the Bayan Har block research area (96°E~106°E, 29°N~36°N) since 1900. The findings are as follows: (1) The maximum line-of-sight (LOS) deformation was approximately 0.9 m. The joint inversion rupture was primarily located in the Dongcao Along Lake section (~98.6°E), aligning with previous research outcomes. (2) The cumulative Coulomb stress at the Maduo earthquake’s source location was −0.1333 MPa, while the inter-seismic stress loading amounted to 0.0745 MPa. The East Kunlun Fault, Maduo–Gande Fault, Ganzi–Yushu Fault, and Dari Fault C exhibited considerable stress loading, warranting attention due to heightened seismic risk. (3) Based on three different co-seismic slip models, the stress disturbance results caused by the Maduo earthquake to the surrounding area and fault did not differ significantly. After the earthquake, the seismogenic fault still has high seismic risk.

Spatiotemporal variation of crustal deformation in northeastern Tibet following the 2008Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake and its impact on fault activity

SUMMARYThe 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, which occurred on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, produced significant time-dependent post-seismic deformation in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. To explore the spatio-temporal evolution of crustal deformation and its impact on nearby active faults due to the Wenchuan earthquake, we first solve the velocity fields, strain rates and slip rates of the major faults at different stages of the earthquake cycle, based on GPS observations spanning approximately 10 yr before and after the Wenchuan earthquake. The results show that: (a) during the late interseismic phase, the GPS velocity fields relative to the Sichuan basin and strain rates near the Longmenshan fault (the seismogenic fault of the Wenchuan earthquake) are insignificant in magnitude, and the geodetic slip rates of the major faults are in good agreement with geological investigations; (b) After the Wenchuan earthquake, post-seismic deformation on both flanks of the causative Longmenshan fault is asymmetrically distributed, with significant deformation distributed between the Longmenshan fault and the Longriba fault. The post-seismic deformation decreases with increasing distance away from the Longmenshan fault. Furthermore, geodetic slip rates for the major active faults at the early post-seismic stage differ significantly from those at the late interseismic stage; (c) The crustal deformation in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau is generally small during the late interseismic phase, but it increases significantly during the early post-seismic stage and begins to decrease again as it progresses to the second post-seismic stage. We speculate that this kinematic evolution of crustal deformation is ascribed to that the Longmenshan fault was in a locking state during the late interseismic period, whereas the Longmenshan fault is no longer locked after the Wenchuan earthquake, and thus the marked post-seismic deformation occurred in the epicentral and its surrounding area. Then, the post-seismic deformation becomes weaker with time lapse, and generally the crustal deformation begins to slowly recover to the pre-seismic level. Using a forward model, we test whether post-seismic deformation caused by viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust 4 yr after the Wenchuan earthquake can explain the observed spatio-temporal pattern of the crustal deformation. We find that this mechanism can account for the evolutionary pattern of crustal motion in the Songpan-Ganzi block east of the Longriba fault in central-east Tibet and central-eastern and southern regions of the West Qinling-Songpan Tectonic Syntaxis in east Tibet 4 yr after the Wenchuan earthquake. Moreover, the post-seismic viscoelastic relaxation of the Wenchuan earthquake is the main cause of loading rate variations of primary faults in the early post-seismic stage in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Contemporary Crustal Movement at the Southern Edge of Central Sikhote-Alin Fault According to GNSS-Observations

The Central Sikhote-Alin Fault (CSAF) is one of the largest tectonic structures in the continental part of the south of the Russian Far East. Its modern geodynamic activity is still very poorly understood, especially by remote sensing methods. The available geological estimates of movements along the CSAR reach several mm/year, however, the available scattered modern geodetic data allow us to state that no displacements exceeding a few mm/year have been detected in the central part of the fault.
 In the present work, based on the data of GNSS observations carried out in the first two decades of the 21st century, the first quantitative estimates of the secular (plate) movements of the Earth's crust in the vicinity of the village of Kievka (Primorsky Krai), located at the southern end of the CSAR, are obtained. Also, in the study area, numerical modeling of the effect of geoenvironment disturbances (co- and postseismic displacements) initiated by the catastrophic Tohoku earthquake on March 11, 2011, Mw 9.1, was evaluated and performed. The results obtained are in good agreement with the available models of the earthquake source and models of postseismic viscoelastic relaxation of the geoenvironment.

Present-day fault kinematic around the eastern Himalayan Syntaxis and probable viscoelastic relaxation perturbation following the 1950 Mw 8.7 Assam earthquake

Strike-slip and tensile/dip-slip rates around the EHS region from the elastic block model. • An elastic block model was constructed to analyze the fault slip rates and regional kinematic around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis (EHS). • The postseismic viscoelastic relaxation effects caused by the 1950 Assam Mw 8.7 earthquake is still significant even after 65 years. • The interseismic slip rate across the eastern Himalaya derived from pure elastic solution may be overestimated if ignoring the viscoelastic relaxation effects. The Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis (EHS) played important role in accommodating the intracontinental deformation and material flow in southeastern Tibet. Quantifying the regional kinematics around the EHS is critical for understanding the deformation mechanism of the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we compiled all available GPS measurements and constructed an elastic block model to analyze the fault kinematics around the EHS. The results suggest that the deformation characteristics around the EHS can be well explained by a linear spherical block model that considers the intra-block homogeneous strain. The fault slip rates from the block model agree well with the late Quaternary slip rates, suggesting that the GPS-derived slip rates can generally represent the long-term slip rates. However, some relatively large residuals, especially in the frontal EHS region, are still detectable, suggesting that various other factors, such as the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation, may also influence the deformation. We simulated the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation deformation caused by the 1950 Mw 8.7 Assam earthquake endured as the largest intracontinental earthquake ever recorded. The results indicate significant postseismic viscoelastic deformation due to the Assam earthquake even after 65 years. The interseismic convergence rates across the Mishmi thrust and the Arunachal Himalaya derived from pure elastic solution may be overestimated if ignoring the viscoelastic relaxation effects. The spatial variations of convergence rates across the central and eastern Himalayas could be partly related to the transient deformation following great Himalayan earthquakes.

Finding Simplicity in the Complexity of Postseismic Coastal Uplift and Subsidence Following Great Subduction Earthquakes

AbstractFollowing great subduction earthquakes, postseismic deformation of coastal areas shows consistent seaward motion but complex vertical deformation. Understanding both the horizontal and vertical components in the same geodynamic framework presents challenges. Here, by modeling short‐term (a few years) postseismic viscoelastic relaxation (VER) and afterslip following synthetic and real subduction earthquakes, we demonstrate that the complexity of the vertical deformation can be explained in simple terms. Along a margin‐normal profile, VER results in an up‐down‐up trisegment, long‐wavelength pattern common to most megathrust earthquakes, including near‐trench uplift, midway subsidence, and near‐arc uplift, with locations controlled by coseismic fault slip. The magnitude of the first two segments is controlled mainly by oceanic mantle viscosity, and the third by mantle wedge viscosity. In contrast with VER, afterslip results in an up‐down bimodal pattern of variable wavelengths specific to individual earthquakes. Its site‐specific and heterogeneous nature is primarily responsible for the complexity in vertical deformation, but its effect can be adequately modeled using a simple elastic model. If the coast is near the megathrust rupture zone, variable combinations of the VER and afterslip effects lead to either uplift or subsidence. If the coast is in the near‐arc segment of VER deformation, uplift usually occurs. Modeling the common VER process enables the identification of site‐specific afterslip, which helps to understand the mechanism of afterslip in the context of the broad spectrum of fault slip behavior. Our results also have important implications to deciphering coastal paleoseismic records to constrain coseismic versus postseismic deformation of ancient earthquakes.

Coseismic Stress Change and Viscoelastic Relaxation after the 2008 Great Sichuan Earthquake

Long-term stress accumulation influenced by coseismic stress changes and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation is considered critical to triggering giant earthquakes. Nevertheless, how the stress increase is interrupted by aftershocks and how it influences the megaseismic cycle remain enigmatic. In this study, based on the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion at the nucleated segments of the 2008 great Sichuan earthquake, the stress variation associated with four M > 6 aftershocks was calculated for the period from 2010 to 2017. The results show that (1) the spatial distribution of coseismic stress change is correlated with the rupture pattern of large events and has a fundamental impact on triggering subsequent earthquakes and (2) postseismic viscoelastic relaxation leads to increased Coulomb stress accumulation at the northern and southern edges of the seismogenic Longmenshan fault, which results in enhanced fault instability and the potential for future large events.

Relative importance of poroelastic effects and viscoelastic relaxation for postseismic velocity fields after normal and thrust earthquakes: Insights from 2D finite-element modelling

Earthquakes on faults in the brittle upper crust evoke sudden changes in pore fluid pressure as well as postseismic viscoelastic flow in the lower crust and lithospheric mantle but the relative importance of these processes during the postseismic phase has not been systematically studied. Here, we use two-dimensional finite-element models to investigate how pore fluid pressure changes and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation interact during the earthquake cycle of an intracontinental dip-slip fault. To isolate the effects from pore fluid flow and viscoelastic relaxation from each other, we performed experiments with and without pore fluid flow and viscoelastic relaxation, respectively. In different experiments, we further varied the permeability of the crust and the viscosity of lower crust or lithospheric mantle. Our model results show poroelastic effects dominate the velocity field in the first months after the earthquake. In models considering poroelastic effects, the surfaces of both hanging wall and footwall of the normal fault subside at different velocities, while they move upwards in the thrust fault model. Depending on the permeability and viscosity values, viscoelastic relaxation dominates the velocity field from about the second postseismic year onward although poroelastic effects may still occur if the permeability of the upper crust is sufficiently low. With respect to the spatial scales of poroelastic effects and viscoelastic relaxation, our results show that pore fluid pressure changes affect the velocity field mostly within 10–20 km around the fault, whereas the signal from viscoelastic relaxation is recognizable up to several tens of kilometres away from the fault. Our findings reveal that both poroelastic effects and viscoelastic relaxation may overlap earlier and over longer time periods than previously thought, which should be considered when interpreting aftershock distributions, postseismic Coulomb stress changes and surface displacements.

Horizontal and Vertical Deformation Rates Linked to the Magallanes‐Fagnano Fault, Tierra Del Fuego: Reconciling Geological and Geodetic Observations by Modeling the Current Seismic Cycle

AbstractWe integrate geodetic, geological and seismological observations in Tierra del Fuego, into a consistent and quantitative analysis, to better understand the current crustal deformation associated to the Magallanes‐Fagnano Fault, that is, the transform boundary between the South American and Scotia plates at the southern tip of Patagonia. To obtain reliable geodetic estimates of the thickness of the seismogenic layer, we model the current seismic cycle from the great 1949 Mw ≃ 7.7 earthquake to the present, including the lasting effects of postseismic relaxation. The model parameters are constrained by Global Navigation Satellite System velocities obtained by reprocessing 24 years of observations in the island with up‐to‐date models and satellite products. We combine the observed deformation rates with long‐term geological estimates of the slip rate in this transform system during the Holocene. The modeling results point to a seismogenic layer thickness of 15 ± 3 km and to fault planes inclined 63° ± 4°, dipping to the South. Along the sections of the Magallanes‐Fagnano Fault in the island these results are consistent with a seismic moment deficit rate, per unit of length, of 3.2 ± 0.8 × 1012 N m a−1 km−1, and a cumulative seismic moment, to date, equivalent to an earthquake of magnitude Mw ≃ 7. The postseismic viscoelastic relaxation, probably related to viscous flow in the mantle, affects the entire region up to ∼200 km away from the Magallanes‐Fagnano Fault, and more than 60 years after the earthquake.

Subduction earthquake sequences in a non-linear visco-elasto-plastic megathrust

SUMMARYWe present a 2-D thermomechanical computational framework for simulating earthquake sequences in a non-linear visco-elasto-plastic compressible medium. The method is developed for a plane-strain problem and incorporates an invariant formulation of the classical rate- and state-dependent friction law and an adaptive time-stepping, which allows the time step to vary by many orders of magnitude during a simulation. Long-term tectonic convergence is imposed by displacing a boundary at a constant rate, whereas temperature-dependent viscosity is solved using a rapidly converging Newton–Raphson scheme. The 2-D volume is discretized using finite differences on a fully staggered grid and marker-in-cell techniques. An adaptive free-surface approximation is used to modulate the air viscosity with the time step, which allows stresses to vanish on the free surface during the propagation of fast slipping events. We present a set of increasingly complex models in which we investigate how inertia, radiation damping, thermally activated non-linear rheology and off-megathrust splay-fault events affect sequences of seismic and aseismic slip on a simplified subduction megathrust. The new method provides a unique computational framework to analyse earthquake sequences and to connect forearc deformation with the dynamic properties of the megathrust, thus providing a physical link between observations spanning from slow interseismic strain accumulation to localized coseismic slip of individual earthquakes and post-seismic viscoelastic relaxation.

Coulomb stress changes associated with the M7.3 Maduo earthquake and implications for seismic hazards

On May 21, 2021, the M7.3 Maduo earthquake occurred within the Bayan Har Block, one of the most seismically active regions in the Tibetan Plateau. This aroused attention to the seismic hazards in this block. Understanding the stress transfer to adjacent faults is important for assessing seismic hazards. In this study, based on the elastic dislocation theory and a multi-layered lithospheric model, we calculate the Coulomb failure stress changes caused by this event on the adjacent major faults and identify the segments that experienced significant increases in stress. Our preliminary results show that five segments, including the middle segment of the Dari Fault, the Tuosuo Lake segment, the Maqin–Maqu segment, the western segment of the Dari Fault, and the Yushu segment of the Garze–Yushu Fault, experienced significant increases in co-seismic stress, which exceed the proposed threshold (1 ​× ​104 ​Pa) for triggering an earthquake. The stress change pattern associated with the post-seismic viscoelastic relaxation effect is substantially consistent with that caused by the co-seismic effect. The segments with high combined (co-plus post-seismic) stress changes are identical to those indicated by the co-seismic stress increase. Based on the stress change in this study and those of previous studies on seismic activity and fault stress evolution, we emphasize the seismic potential of the Maqin–Maqu segment, the Tuosuo Lake segment, and the middle-west segments of the Dari Fault, which should receive increased attention.

Normal Faulting Movement During the 2020 Mw 6.4 Yutian Earthquake: A Shallow Rupture in NW Tibet Revealed by Geodetic Measurements

The ENE striking Longmu Co fault and the North Altyn Tagh left-lateral slip fault have led to the complex regional structure in the northwestern Tibetan Plateau, resulting in a series of normal faulting and strike slip faulting earthquakes. Using both the ascending and descending Sentinel-1A/B radar images, we depict the coseismic deformation caused by the 2020 Yutian Mw 6.4 earthquake with a peak subsidence of ~ 20 cm. We determine the seismogenic fault geometry by applying the Bayesian approach with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling method, which can better characterize the posterior probability density functions of the source model parameters. The estimation results reveal that the earthquake is a normal faulting event with a moderate strike slip component. Based on the optimal fault geometry model, we extend the fault plane and invert for the distributed coseismic slip model. The optimal slip model shows that the coseismic slip is mainly concentrated at shallow depths of 3–10 km with a maximum slip of ~ 1.0 m. Our preferred geodetic coseismic model exhibits no surface rupture, which may likely be due to the shallow slip deficit in the uppermost crust. We calculate the combined loading effect of the Coulomb failure stress changes induced by the coseismic dislocations and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation of the 2008 Mw 7.1, 2012 Mw 6.4 and 2014 Mw 6.9 Yutian events. Our study demonstrates that the three preceding major Yutian shocks were insufficient to trigger the 2020 Yutian earthquake, which we consider perhaps reflects the natural release of elastic strain accumulated mainly through localized tectonic movement. We attribute the 2020 Yutian event to the release of extensional stress in a stepover zone controlled by the Longmu Co and the North Altyn Tagh sinistral strike slip fault systems. The seismic risk in the southwest end of the North Altyn Tagh fault has been elevated by the Yutian earthquake sequences, which require future attention.

AutoCoulomb: An Automated Configurable Program to Calculate Coulomb Stress Changes on Receiver Faults with Any Orientation and its Application to the 2020 Mw 7.8 Simeonof Island, Alaska, Earthquake

AbstractCoulomb stress change is the change in resultant force of shear stress and friction imposed on a receiver fault plane. The resulting stress change is often computed using the Coulomb 3.4 and the postseismic Green’s functions and postseismic components (PSGRN-PSCMP) programs. Notwithstanding both preferences, both have incomplete optimally oriented failure planes (OOPs) and are inconvenient to resolve Coulomb stress changes on various fault planes placed in varying depths. Here, we present an alternative program termed AutoCoulomb. It leverages the shell command-line tool to automatically batch-process Coulomb stress changes on all sorts of receiver fault planes. We first validate the program. We then apply it to the 2020 Mw 7.8 Simeonof Island, Alaska, earthquake, as a case study. Our results show that Coulomb stress changes resolved on fixed receiver faults, using the three programs, are in line with each other. So are those resolved on 3D OOPs using the PSGRN–PSCMP and the AutoCoulomb programs. Nevertheless, Coulomb stress changes on 2D OOPs, generated by the AutoCoulomb program, always outweigh those done by the Coulomb 3.4 program, indicating that 2D OOPs constrained by the latter are not the most optimal. Some nonoptimal 2D OOPs result in the reversal of the signs of Coulomb stress changes, posing a risk of misleading stress shadows with negative Coulomb stress changes. For the case study, the 28 July 2020 Mw 6.1 aftershock received a positive coseismic Coulomb stress change of ∼3.5 bars. In contrast, the compounded coseismic Coulomb stress changes at the hypocenters of the 1946 Mw 8.2, the 1948 Mw 7.2, and the 2020 Mw 7.8 earthquakes are within a range from −1.1 to 0.1 bar, suggesting that coseismic Coulomb stress changes promoted by preceding mainshocks alone are not responsible for these mainshocks. Other factors, such as postseismic viscoelastic relaxation, afterslip, and slow slip, may contribute to promoting their occurrence.

Overlapped Postseismic Deformation Caused by Afterslip and Viscoelastic Relaxation Following the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha (Nepal) Earthquake

AbstractStudying transient postseismic deformation is one of the key approaches to probe fault kinematics and rheological behavior of rocks surrounding tectonic faults. Previous studies have shown that transient postseismic deformation is dominantly induced by afterslip and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation. However, effects of these two mechanisms are generally overlapped in space and time, making the analysis of the observations challenging. Here, we investigate the overlapping effects of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation following the 2015 Gorkha earthquake based on the first 4‐years’ Global Positioning System observations and finite element models. Separated mechanisms either fail to explain the observations or lead to unreasonable model parameters. A combined model that incorporates stress‐driven afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation can overcome the limitations of separated mechanisms. Our results indicate that only short‐term (<1 year) postseismic deformation in near‐to middle‐fields is caused mainly by afterslip, whereas that in far‐field or long‐term are dominated by the viscoelastic relaxation effect. The stress‐driven afterslip is mainly confined to a narrow zone adjacent to the coseismic rupture asperities, in contrast to the widespread deep afterslip as suggested by previous studies. The total seismic moment released by the afterslip is ∼5% of that released by the Mw 7.8 main shock. The optimal viscosity of the lower crust beneath the south Tibet is estimated to be 2.5 × 1018 Pa∙s, which is at least one order lower than that beneath Indian plate, suggesting a significant lateral variation across the Himalayan fault. Validations by using independent InSAR observations further confirm the reliability of the combined model.

Probing time-dependent afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation following the 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake based on the 3-D finite-element model

We analyzed daily displacement time series from 34 continuous GPS stations in Nepal and 5 continuous GPS stations in South Tibet, China, and extracted the first 4.8 years of postseismic motion after the 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake. With the longer duration GPS observations, we find that postseismic displacements mainly exhibit southward and uplift motion. To study the postseismic afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation, we built a 3-D spherical finite-element model (FEM) with heterogeneous material properties and surface topography across the Himalayan range, accounting for the strong variations in material properties and surface elevation along the central Himalayan arc. On the basis of the FEM, we reveal that the predicted viscoelastic relaxation of cm level moves southward to the north of the Gorkha earthquake rupture, but in an opposite direction to the observed postseismic deformation in the south; the postseismic deformation excluding viscoelastic relaxation is well explained by afterslip downdip of the coseismic rupture. The afterslip is dominant during 4.8 years after the 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake; the contribution by the viscoelastic relaxation gradually increases slightly. The lack of slip on a shallow portion and western segment of the MHT during and after the 2015 Gorkha earthquake implies continued seismic hazard in the future.